A new report (World Population Prospects 2019) by the United Nations Department of Economic affairs that was released this week says the world population will rise from 7.7 billion people to 10.9 billion by 2100. To arrive at their projections, the authors of the World Population Prospects report studied population censuses and nationally representative sample surveys from 1950 to 2018.
So what’s new you may ask? Let’s find out.
Key Findings:
1. The world’s population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than at any time since 1950, owing to reduced levels of fertility. From an estimated 7.7 billion people worldwide in 2019, the medium-variant projection indicates that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.9 billion in 2100.
2. More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America. China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019.
3. Disparate population growth rates among the world’s largest countries will re-order their ranking by size: for example, India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country around 2027.
4. Even as India’s population growth rate is projected to drop to below 0% in 2060, its population will inexorably grow to 1.65 Billion in 2060 before starting to drop.
5. In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 years or over worldwide outnumbered children under age five. Projections indicate that by 2050 there will be more than twice as many persons above 65 as children under five. By 2050, the number of persons aged 65years or over globally will also surpass the number of adolescents and youth aged 15 to 24 years. In India it will be the opposite, and that’s the good news.
6. Around 65% (1 billion) of the total population in 2060 when the Indian population is expected to peak before a deep dive, will be in the 15-64 age bracket – The position will start to reverse after that, but slowly. However, this has implications for health care and jobs. There are no jobs now, and unless upskilling is rampant, there will be jobs but no skills to meet those requirements in the coming years. The health care system too, needs rapid fixing.
7. There will always be more men than women in India, except in the senior citizens bracket (>65). This has implications for gender justice, equality and safety. The census of 2011 pegged the sex ratio at 943 Women to 1000 Men. It will rise with awareness and measures against female infanticide, but it is expected still be under par at 966 women to 1000 men.
8. We were always taught that India is largely rural. It may have been but by 2050, India will be largely urban – More than 50% of its populace will be living in cities. This has implications for urban infrastructure, agricultural output and job and living spaces. Can the provision of urban amenities in rural areas stem the tide? Or is it desirable that we transform India, the way we are planning to do?
With inputs from
https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf
