Bengaluru: A pre-poll survey conducted by CHS has put H D Kumaraswamy as the most preferred CM candidate in the forthcoming elections, while incumbent Chief Minister Siddaramaiah stands at the third spot, below BJP state President B S Yeddyurapa, who continues to be backed by the Lingayat community despite the Lingayat- Veershaiva tussle.
In the survey, conducted at the behest of the Congress party between December 2-19, 2017, around 4,48,000 voters were interviewed from 224 assembly constituencies (2000 samples per constituency) covering all districts using a standard questionnaire. These respondents were spread across 560 urban and 1250 rural locations in the state and has encompassed almost all castes and communities within the sample space.
The survey has ruled out the chances of a single party garnering simple majority votes, which implies that it will be a hung assembly. Also Independents will have no major impact in forming the Government.
According to the survey, the Congress party will bag around 77-81 seats, a vote share of around 36.4%, BJP 73-76 seats with a vote share of 33.2% and JD(S) 64-66 seats with a vote share of 24.9%. Notably, it was pointed out that Ahinda voters are firmly with the Congress, whose vote share has continued to remain same since 30 years and is equally dispersed across all regions. The recent instances of communal violence in coastal Karnataka has positively impacted the BJP vote share, while Muslim votes in Hyderabad Karnataka region are predicted to favor the JDS.
In Old Mysore region, the fight remains between Congress and JDS, where the former is said to be losing substantial number of seats to the JDS. However, in Hyderabad Karnataka Region the Congress is likely to win more seats, while the BJP is gaining momentum in Mumbai Karnataka region. Coastal Karnataka will witness a tough contest between the BJP and the Congress
On the voting pattern based on the gender and different age groups, it was revealed that the youth are turning away from the Congress as the Government has failed in creating substantial employment. Moreover the overall picture shows that people have developed an apathy towards current Congress Government due to Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's arrogance. Also the Government’s helplessness in handling Cauvery and Mahadayi issues have proved to be a major setback. The "Bhagya" series of schemes of the government have received a positive opinion however, the absence of long term plans for the state's development has had a negative impact on the Government.
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