New Delhi: Narendra Modi has yet again proved the skeptics wrong. Popular verdict has clearly shown that his charisma has lasted longer than many thought it would. The BJP taking a giant leap forward in Harayana to have a majority on its own and becoming by far the single largest party, was simply inconceivable till the electioneering gained real momentum and Modi took a slightly belated, post-Vijaydashami plunge into campaigning.
The BJP headquarters was in band-baja-barat mode, all decked up for celebrations. Firecrackers, drumbeats and laddoos were in abundance. It was very noisy, joyful and a bit too boisterous. In less than five months of his arrival at the helm in Delhi, Modi has taken the party’s organisational base to a new high, breaching barriers in West and North India. The BJP now rules in seven states on its own, nine with allies.
The party has snatched two very important states from the Congress — Maharastra, the economic powerhouse of the country, and Haryana, whose geographical proximity with the national Capital gave it far greater clout in national politics than its size. Modi had made it possible. His commander-in-chief at the helm in the organisation, Amit Shah too has proven his worth — take a bold gambit and make it pay off.
For his supporters Modi has proved to be the biggest vote catcher in Indian electoral history. Some argue that he has emerged as even bigger than Indira Gandhi. Modi, unlike Indira, didn’t have the kind of organisational base that she had in early 1970s. Also Indira’s aura got enhanced because she was Jawaharlal Nehru’s daughter and because she was a lone woman fighting it out against the entrenched political class. Modi in contrast is self-made, arriving on the national political arena exactly a year ago when he was announced BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate.
People believed in BJP’s pre-poll catch phrase `Chalo Chale Modi ke Saath’ and reposed their trust in him what he told them, a BJP government at the Centre and a BJP government in the state would take the number of BJP rules states to 11. The BJP victory in Maharashtra and Haryana shows that it didn’t matter to voters whether the party had any deserving local face to rule the states. The votes polled for the BJP were far in excess of its organisational strength in both the states.
The BJP expected a clear majority, but despite the results not quite matching their expectations their celebratory spirit wasn’t dampened. In Haryana BJP’s victory was phenomenal where they went from being a fringe player till recently — with only four MLAs in the outgoing assembly and only two MLAs in previous assembly — to registering a a 12 fold increase in MLAs without any worthwhile local leadership. The ruling Congress was relegated to a poor third position.
In Maharastra, the BJP couldn’t get majority but has enough numbers to secure an invitation from the Governor. No party in Maharastra has crossed the 100-mark since 1990. As of now they have won 102 seats and are leading in 21 seats. The number of seats that the BJP has won and is leading in is more than what the Shiv Sena had offered them during the alliance talks that failed. The Shiv Sena, a distant second winning 53 seats and leading in 8, no where close to what it called ‘Mission 150’. The NCP gave a tough time to it’s erstwhile ally Congress for the number three position.
If anyone had doubted BJP’s ability to go for back-room negotiations with potential alliance partners Shiv Sena or the NCP, by afternoon it was set at rest by NCP leader Praful Patel when he said that “in the interest of Maharastra”, his party had decided to support a BJP government from outside. He said the BJP was single the largest party and was close to a majority, also a BJP government at the centre and the state would naturally be advantageous for the region.
The Sena too has softened its stand and has said it was waiting for the BJP to make a move and was willing to cooperate for the sake of development of Maharastra.
During the election campaign Modi had not spoken a word against Sena, because of his “reverence for Bal Thackeray” but had termed NCP as a ‘naturally corrupt party’. Was that simple electoral rhetoric? The NCP as a partner would be willing to work in a subservient position as opposed to Sena. On the other hand Shiv Sena had been BJP’s “natural ally” and could yet again come together “in interest of Maharastra”.
The BJP Parliamentary Board, highest decision making body, is meeting in New Delhi at 6 pm to take stock of the situation. Firstpost had earlier done a story on challenges that Modi will face in naming chief ministers for Maharastra and Haryana.
The BJP leadership may not be in a tearing hurry to take a call on leadership and alliance issue in Maharastra. The state is already under President’s Rule. Governor Vidyasagar Rao is a seasoned BJP leader, LK Advani’s deputy in home ministry during the NDA government. Modi and Shah have to find a leader in both the states who would deliver on governance and fulfil promises made by the Prime Minister.
The BJP has to balance it out in Haryana. The results indicate that BJP’s victory — despite giving tickets to 27 Jats, highest by any party — was OBC backlash against the Jat hegemony in the state. Modi possibly has to look for a robust non-Jat face, but not annoy Jats completely.
Modi has been a political risk taker. From the time he became chief minister in the immediate aftermath of a devastating earthquake in Gujarat, to when he was named BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate ahead of assembly elections in four states, to deputing Amit Shah to be in-charge of party affairs in UP and making Shah party president after he became PM. Severing ties with Sena just a day before filing of nominations too was fraught with risk, so was dumping HJC in Haryana, but Modi and Shah took the bold steps.
He may throw up yet another surprise in naming chief ministers of the two states. Could they be heavyweight union ministers?
